ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
& Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 21st, 2017
The Monday Tuesday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Economic news from last week was mixed. This is normal for this point in a cycle. Retail sales were strong, the inventory to sales ratio continues to improve, and leading indicators continue upward. Yet, industrial production hit a little bump. And the CPI increase was the highest in four years. In Arizona, operations at Sky Harbor International Airport were down mainly due to American Airlines (formerly U.S. Airways) moving more flights out of the Phoenix area. This is likely to be a continuing trend as AA continues to realign hubs.
U.S. Snapshot:
- The index of leading indicators increased 0.6% in January to 125.5 (2010=100) following gains of 0.5%in December and 0.2% in November. This sharp increase points to a positive economic climate in the 1st half of this year.
- Retail sales (seasonally adjusted) in January increased 0.4% from December and are now 5.6% above a year ago. This was a strong performance.
- The ratio of inventories to sales for manufacturing and trade was 1.35 in December. This compares to 1.38 in November and 1.40 a year ago (see chart below). This is an improvement and shows that businesses are dealing with excess inventories.
- Consumer prices as measured by the CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. That is a 7.2% annual rate, the highest in 4 years. The CPI-U is now up 2.5% from a year ago and all items less food and energy is up 2.3% from a year ago. The FED’s target is 2.0%.
- Industrial production declined 0.3% in January and is now flat when compared to a year ago.
- Capacity utilization, at 75.3% in January, declined 0.4% from December and is down 0.5% from a year ago.
- Total U.S. building permits were up 4.6% in January and now stand 8.2% above a year ago. Single family permits were down 2.7% in January when compared to December but now stand 11.1% above a year ago.
Arizona Snapshot:
- Total air traffic at Sky Harbor International Airport (the number of people who boarded and deplaned) was down in December. This is a continuation of a recent trend. The cause is a declining presence at American Airlines. It is the result of American (formerly U.S. Airways) moving flights out of Phoenix to its other hubs. For 2016, the total emplaned was down 1.5% and the total deplaned was down 1.3%. Total traffic was down 1.4%.
About EDPCo
Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.
For more information, contact –
Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200
