Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Mostly mixed news accompanied Thanksgiving week. The Index of Leading Indicators for the U.S. increased 0.2% in October. This followed a 0.5% increase in September. This points to a modestly expanding economy in the near term. Over the last several months, gains in residential construction and finance have offset weakness in consumer expectations, new orders in manufacturing and labor market components. Coincident indicators also gained, but, by a very modest 0.1%. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index indicates that consumer sentiment stalled at the end of November as uncertainty grew over federal tax and spending issues. The index was 82.7 compared to 82.6 in October. The November reading was below expectations. Initial claims for unemployment insurance at the national level continued to be high. While the 410,000 claims was a decrease of 41,000 from last week, it is still considerably above the four-week moving average of 386,750 claims. This is a poor showing for labor markets.
Housing news nationally continued to be positive. The National Association of Home Builders housing market index was 46 in November. This is up from 41 last month and 19 in November 2011. Sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased in October despite Hurricane Sandy. October’s 4,790,000 sales were 10.9% above year earlier levels. Median prices of resales also continued to gain ground and now stand 11.1% above a year ago at $178,600. National new home starts (single family and multifamily) were also up in October and now stand 41.9% above a year ago.
The housing data for Greater Phoenix was also positive. There were 896 permits issued in Greater Phoenix in October according to R.L. Brown. That is 65% above year earlier levels. Year to date, permits are up about 75% over the similar 2011 period. The median price of a new single family home in October was $235,964.
Resales were up about 2% in October 2012 over October 2011. Year to date, resales are down about 5%. The median price of a resale in October was $148,000.
As for Greater Tucson, the 211 permits issued in October was a 34.7% gain over a year earlier. Foreclosures in Southern Arizona were down 16.2%. The median new home price was $224,652, a 2.9% gain over a year ago. The median resale price was $147,500, a decline of 3.5% from a year ago.
In other news, Arizona weekly unemployment claims were down 36% from year earlier levels. Overall, the housing sector is showing good gains. And Arizona, especially Greater Phoenix, continues to make progress.
