Arizona can expect a tepid economic recovery next year with an improving housing market but don’t expect a robust economy until 2015.
That’s the view of local economist Elliott Pollack, who spoke last week at an economic-forecast event presented by the Arizona School of Real Estate and Business in downtown Scottsdale, as covered by The Arizona Republic.
Pollack was upbeat about declines in distressed-housing inventory and foreclosure notices as the market stabilizes, however, he warned the recovery could be derailed by some local and national issues already creating uncertainty.
The so-called fiscal cliff is poised to push the country back into recession by the second quarter of 2013 if Congress doesn’t act, Pollack said.
Pollack, who admitted he was a cranky after returning from an overseas trip, is skeptical of what will happen in Washington because he said there is “no leadership in the White House or Congress.”
“If anyone tells you we don’t need spending cuts and tax hikes they’re a (expletive) moron,” said Pollack, apologizing for his profanity. “We have to have tax increases.”
Demand high for home lots
Pollack said there is a scarcity of developed lots and available land for new communities. “We will run out of lots in 2014 and then you’re done building,” he said.
Earlier, land broker Nate Nathan said that by the end of the year, land transactions will be completed on 110,000 residential lots in Maricopa and Pinal counties, Nathan said.
Longer term, Pollack said the Phoenix area will add 1 million people and 200,000 homes within the next eight-to-10 years.
Pollack told the group of real estate professionals that investor groups from Wall Street are continuing to buy up big blocks of single-family houses in the Valley.
Also: ASU expert: Mortgage laws holding up housing recovery
Holiday spending expected to rise; Arizona retailers are optimistic
