The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
By ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company
Arizona Snapshot: Even though it was a slow week for state and local data, it is evident that Arizona continues to slowly but surely improve.
U.S. Snapshot: The nation’s growth in 2013 is now expected to be even more modest than growth achieved in 2012. This is not surprising given all the uncertainly surrounding the fiscal cliff and Obamacare. Even so, the economy continues to move forward.
Arizona
Weekly unemployment claims continue to decline. For the state, claims are 37.0% lower than a year ago and down 1.0% from a week ago. Both enplanements and deplanements at Sky Harbor were up very modestly in October over year earlier levels. This follows a drop in the year over year comparison in September.
U.S.
The Blue Chip Consensus forecast expects real GDP to grow 2.2% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013 as a modest recovery in most major components continues following a brief slowdown in the 4th quarter and early 2013. This assumes the fiscal cliff is avoided.
U.S. industrial production increased 1.1% in November over October and now stands 2.5% above year earlier levels. Industrial production had fallen 0.7% in October. The gain in November is estimated to have largely resulted from a recovery in production for industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy in late October. Capacity utilization increased to 78.4%. That rate is still 1.9 percentage points below its long run (1972-2011) average. Until capacity utilization gets to its long run average, there will be little incentive for businesses to invest in new plant.
Consumer prices (CPI-All Urban Consumers) declined 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, consumer prices rose a modest 1.8%. The decline in prices can be traced to the recent decline in oil prices. The core rate of inflation (All items less food and energy) was flat last month and now stands 1.9% above year earlier levels.
U.S. retail sales were up a modest 0.3% in November when compared to October and now stand 3.7% above a year ago. These numbers are seasonally adjusted. This is not a great sign for the Christmas buying season.
