The Monday Morning Quarterback A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
By Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Not a lot of news this week. With a slight increase in total claims for unemployment insurance, the downward march in claims seems to have plateaued. Hopefully, this is temporary. Retail sales in November were satisfactory. Lodging indicators for the state and Metro Phoenix were weak.
U.S. Snapshot:
Mostly good news here. Leading indicators were up and initial claims for unemployment insurance were down. While new home sales were down, 2012 was still a year of significant improvement compared to 2011. Existing home sales were satisfactory.
Arizona
Arizona weekly unemployment insurance claims were up slightly for the week of January 19th. They have been at about the same level for the past two months. Yet, the latest data shows 38.6% fewer people making initial claims than a year ago. This is clearly a positive. Consumers must have been feeling good about their finances in November as statewide retail sales were up 8.1% from October and 6.8% over the year earlier level. The bulk of the holiday season retail sales will be reported next month when December data is released. For Maricopa County, retail sales were up 9.4% from October and 7.6% from a year ago. Autos and light trucks remain a significant part of the increase.
On a less positive note, lodging performance, as measured by hotel and motel occupancy, was up only 0.4% from a year ago in December. Occupancy levels were a mediocre 46.6% as supply and demand were essentially flat from the similar 2011 period. A similar result occurred in Metro Phoenix where occupancy rates actually dropped from 47.6% in December 2011 to 47.1% last month. Demand was down 0.3% while supply was up 0.7%.
National
Leading indicators for the U.S. were up 0.5% in December following no change in November and a 0.3% increase in October. The index now stands at 93.9. This compares to 94.5 reported a year ago and certainly is in line with the slow recovery that has been experienced over the last year. U.S. initial unemployment insurance weekly claims decreased 5,000 from the previous week. The previous week was down by almost 40,000. This is good news and is the best performance since 2008. New single-family home sales in December were down 7.3% from November, but, were 8.8% above December 2011. The median sales price was $248,900. Existing home sales also eased in December. Sales of existing homes were down 1.0% from November, but, were up 12.8% from a year ago. The median sales price of an existing home in December was $180,800, up 11.5% from a year ago.
