The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Arizona continues to be ranked top 5 or 10 in the country in most economic categories. Part of this has to do with our propensity to grow, and part has to do with us coming off a low baseline. Expect more of the same in the coming months.
U.S. Snapshot:
The national picture is still clouded with phrases such as “fiscal cliff.” Hope is on the horizon though. Ted Nugent is advising Congress on the fine art of strategic negotiations while Tiger Woods is providing the President a crash course on relationship building. Only good can come from this. The cut off date for avoiding significant budget cuts is approaching and a decision will be made one way or another. While many are pessimistic, the outcome may be much like the tax increase discussion: find a middle point and kick the rest of the can down the road some more.
Arizona
It was a light week for economic data. Arizona unemployment insurance claims fell 3.5% from last week and are down 40% from last year. Single-family listings are down 12% from last year in Greater Phoenix and the median price is up nearly 30%. Future price increases in single-family housing are expected, just not at the exceptional rate that was realized over the last year.
National
As noted last week, GDP figures have been receiving much attention. The forecast is still predicting 1.9% growth this year despite the slight decline in the fourth quarter of last year. Much of that had to do with inventory depletion and changes in federal expenditures from a pre-election quarter to post election. The inventory changes will likely be a one-time data issue. The federal budget cuts will continue. Despite the uncertainty that is continuing in D.C., U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 76.3 in February, up from 73.8 in January. U.S. retail sales are also up 4.4% from the prior year. Capacity utilization continues to hover just under 80%.
