The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week.
By Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Revised employment data shows that while Arizona did well relative to the other 49 states last year, it did not do as well as originally anticipated. But, Arizona weekly unemployment claims continue to decline. And good news continues to come from the housing sector. Better news from Phoenix than from Tucson.
U.S. Snapshot
No major improvement in initial unemployment claims. But, leading indicators continue to increase and both national building permits and starts were up significantly over a year ago as were housing prices.
Arizona
Arizona’s employment growth in 2012 put Arizona 8th out of 50 states. That’s up from 30th in 2011 and 49th in 2010. The state ranked 13th out of 50 for employment growth in January, though the number doesn’t mean much over a short period of time. Total Arizona weekly unemployment claims stayed about 39% below year earlier levels. This compares to a national reduction in claims of less than 8%.
In Greater Phoenix, existing single-family home sales fell 12.8% compared to December 2012. The lower sales volume is largely due to very limited inventory levels at the low end of the market. At the top end of the market, sales are higher than last year. The substantially higher prices compared to a year ago have caused buyer interest to ease a little, but there are still multiple bids on a large percent of resale listings. Normal resales now account for 44% of total resales compared to 26% a year ago. Housing prices were up over 35% from a year ago in January. New home sales prices were up 21.4% and normal resales were up 19.2%. HUD sales prices were up 35.3%. New home sales totals were 799 in January. That’s 61% above year earlier levels. Gilbert, by far, had the largest number of new homes closed, followed by Phoenix, Goodyear, Buckeye, Mesa, Surprise, Peoria, Chandler and Queen Creek.
As for Southern Arizona, permits were up 9.7% over a year ago while median resale prices were up 17.3%.
National
The Conference Board index of leading indicators rose 0.5 in February. February’s increase, the third consecutive, was widespread and driven by a majority of its components. Both U.S. building permits and starts were up in February. Total permits were up 33.8% over a year ago while single-family permits were up 25.5%. Total starts were up 27.7% while single-family starts were up 31.5%. Existing home sales were up 10.2% over a year ago and median prices of existing homes now stand 11.8% over a year ago. This means that more homeowners have equity in their homes. They are more likely to become mobile and will start to feel better off financially.
