The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
By Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Employment growth in Arizona as a whole was up, but at a rate that can only be described as mediocre. Greater Phoenix did better. Greater Tucson did not. Yet, both metro areas had unemployment below 7%. Total weekly unemployment claims for the state remain about 40% below year-earlier levels. Housing continues to deliver good news in Greater Phoenix. New home permits and closings were up as were both new and resale prices. Finally, after a blazing January report, the February report for retail sales was up at a more modest rate.
U.S. Snapshot
Leading indicators were slightly down as were consumer prices. Industrial production and capacity utilization were both modestly up in March. Single-family permits were down slightly from February in March but were still way up from a year ago. Initial claims for unemployment insurance at the national level were down a modest 9% from a year ago.
Arizona
Employment gains in Arizona were up 1.9% from March 2012. Eight of the eleven major employment sectors were up, one was flat and two reported job losses over February 2013. Only government and information sectors were down. The leaders were leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, construction and trade, transportation & utilities. For the first three months of the year, Arizona ranked 13th out of 50 states in percentage growth. Greater Phoenix did better with 2.4% growth over a year ago. Greater Tucson saw employment grow by 0.8% over a year ago. Fortunately, both had unemployment rates in the sub 7% range (6.7% for Greater Phoenix and 6.8% for Greater Tucson). In other employment related news, total claims for Arizona unemployment insurance were up slightly over the week ending April 13, but, were still down 40.7% from a year ago.
R.L. Brown reports new and existing home sales markets continued to generate good news. While resales were down, resale prices were up (5.1% for March over February and 31.0% over a year ago). This will help more underwater home owners get above water and will help those who have equity to have more breathing room. New single-family permits in March were up 21.4% over a year ago and for the first three months of the year, were up 27.0%. New home prices were strong-up 2.8% for the month and 20.3% over a year ago to $264,578. Resale prices were $165,000.
Arizona retail sales in February were up 3.8% over a year ago. This follows a 10.2% gain in January. For Maricopa County, retail sales were up 2.2% and 11.7% respectively.
National
The index of leading indicators was down 0.1% in March following a 0.5% gain in February. The index still points to a continuation of the slow growth environment we have been stuck in for quite some time. Headwinds from government spending cuts have made it difficult for the private sector to maintain momentum. Consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index were down in March and now stand a modest 1.5% above a year ago. Even the core rate of inflation (all items less food and energy) was up only 1.9% over the year. This is likely to continue as long as the overall economy remains weak.
U.S. industrial production was up 0.4% in March and is now 3.5% higher than a year ago. Capacity utilization inched up to 78.5%. This is 1.6% above a year ago but is still below levels historically associated with significant additions to new spending on plant. Single family permits, while modestly down for the month, stand 27.7% over the same 2012 period and starts were up over 28% year over year.
