The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
By Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Improvement continues in unemployment insurance claims. Single-family housing in Greater Phoenix continues to look better in terms of listings, sales and median price.
U.S. Snapshot
The national Blue Chip economic forecast becomes more optimistic. Unemployment insurance data slowly improved. While consumer credit increased, most of the increases were for non-revolving credit, i.e., autos and light trucks rather than credit card debt. This is a positive. Yet, consumer confidence was down and gains in retail sales were modest. Inventory/sales ratios are under control indicating that inventories are not out of line with sales.
Arizona
Not a lot of economic news. But, the news that was reported was positive. As far as unemployment insurance data was concerned, both monthly data (initial claims and continued claims) and weekly data (total claims) continued to show progress. Initial claims were down almost 10% from a year ago, while continued claims were down 20%. The data was, however, not as good on a month over month basis in March as it was in February. Total claims stood as 41% below year earlier levels.
As for Greater Phoenix single-family residential sales, the news continues to be positive. According to MLS data, single-family listings were down 7.1% from a year ago in March and total sales were up 12.2%. The median price of homes sold on MLS was $167,500 or 28.9% over a year ago. For the month of March, prices were up 4.7% over the February number.
National
The national Blue Chip consensus forecast continues to become more optimistic. The consensus estimate of real (inflation adjusted) GDP in 2013 rebounded over the past month. Real GDP for 2013 is now forecast to be 2.1%, up from 1.9% in March. 41 of 55 forecasters increased their expectations in April. The Blue Chip panel also expects consumer prices to rise modestly (1.9%) and housing starts to continue the rebound (1.0 million vs. 0.78 million last year). As for 2014, the panel thinks real GDP will be us 2.7%, consumer prices will increase 2.1% and housing starts will get to 1.2 million.
U.S. initial unemployment weekly claims were down last week and now stand 8.5% lower than a year ago. And while total credit outstanding continues to show modest growth (6.0% above a year ago, revolving credit was up only 0.7%. It was non-revolving credit, mostly autos and light trucks, where the growth has occurred (up 8.5% from a year ago). This indicates that consumers are keeping their credit card debt under control and that most consumer borrowing is for durable goods like cars and trucks.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined in April to 72.3. This is down form the March number of 78.6 in March and 76.4 in April 2012. The advanced estimate for March retail sales indicates a seasonally adjusted decline of 0.4% from February. Retail sales now stand a modest 2.8% above a year ago.as consumers remain cautious. Finally, business is also playing things carefully. The inventories/sales ratio in February was 1.28 compared to 1.26 a year ago. This indicates that inventories are in line with sales and no over accumulation is taking place. Also, good news.
