The Monday Morning Quarterback : A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Arizona Snapshot
Not much economic news, but what news there was did not tell a great story. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased and occupancy rates in hotels went up versus a year ago. This continues to show an anemic recovery in the state. While it is continuing to grow, there are more gray areas then there should be at this point in the cycle. It’s just not possible to escape the national picture.
U.S. Snapshot
More news at this level and the news paints a modestly more positive, but not consistent, picture. Total weekly claims for unemployment insurance were up and now are only modestly better than a year ago. On the other hand, consumer confidence was slightly up, manufacturers’ orders for durable goods were up, existing home sales were up and new home sales were way up.
Arizona
Total weekly claims for unemployment insurance were 37% below year earlier claims. Yet, up until recently, claims had been running 40% lower. So, while this is not a bad reading, the comparisons with year earlier numbers seem to be weakening. As for lodging performance, June was a weak month for both the state and Greater Phoenix. Occupancy rates in the state were 57.0% in June compared to 57.7% a year ago. The modest decline in occupancy was due to a 1.3% drop in demand and a 0.1% drop in supply. As for Greater Phoenix, occupancy rates were 52.9% compared to 53.2% in June 2012. Demand was down 0.9% while supply was down 0.4%.
National
Initial claims for unemployment insurance now stand a modest 5.5% below a year ago. While employment continues to rise, it is not growing at a rapid enough rate to make big dents in the demand for unemployment insurance. On the other hand, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was up to 85.1 in July compared to 84.1 in June and 72.3 a year ago. Thus, consumers continue to become more confident, albeit modestly so. Also, manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods were up 10.9% from a year ago and 4.2% from a month ago. This is the fourth month in the last five to show an increase. It was led by orders for nondefense aircraft and parts.
Existing home sales were up 15.2% from a year ago in June. New home sales nationally were up 38.1% for the same period. As far as prices, existing home prices for the period were up to $214,200 from $188,800 a year ago. This is an increase of 13.5% over the prior year. Median new home prices were up 7.4% to $249,700 for the same period.
