The Monday Morning Quarterback : A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Arizona Snapshot
Total claims for Arizona unemployment insurance are finally showing better progress through the week of July 6, which adds to the significant year over year decline as well.
Greater Phoenix home listings continue to fall, and median sales prices have continued to rise. ASU reports approximately 22 percent of current listings are already under contract as well. ASU also reported higher-end home sales are the strongest they have been in six years, and multiple bid sales have become normal for the majority of resale listings.
U.S. Snapshot
The federal deficit for fiscal year 2013 has declined further with the help of a June surplus and a one-time rescue repayment by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Consumer credit rose sharply in May and this time it was caused by both a jump in credit card use and non-revolving credit. We might see a corresponding dip in the revolving credit category though, according to the consumer sentiment index which declined in the first week of July. Initial unemployment insurance weekly claims increased slightly from the previous week.
Producer prices for finished goods are on the rise as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of June. Wholesale trade sales also increased in the month of May, and inventories declined. Finally, gasoline prices nationally are down both week-over-week and month-over-month.
Arizona
Arizona weekly unemployment insurance claims finally declined once again for the week ending July 6th. The decrease helped bring the annual comparison to 40.3 percent below year earlier levels.
Greater Phoenix is still enjoying an improving housing market. There is currently low supply with just more than 20,000 listings. As many as 22 percent of those active listings are under contract as well. Homes priced below $150,000 have the smallest inventory with a reported 22 days of supply, and homes priced above $500,000 are currently showing the strongest demand in six years. Multiple bid situations have become a common occurrence among the majority of resales. The median resale home price is up to $185,000, which is a 27.6 percent gain year-over- year. New home prices have continued to rise as well, increasing 22.3 percent from June 2012 to June 2013, according to the Information Market.
National
The federal deficit for fiscal year 2013 has declined 44% year to date. The U.S. Treasury reported a surplus of $116.5 billion for the month of June. This significant surplus was helped by a one-time rescue repayment of $66 billion from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Consumer credit rose sharply in May and this time it was caused by both a jump in credit card use and non-revolving credit. Revolving credit rose by 0.8 percent in May compared to April and non-revolving credit rose by 0.7 percent month-over-month. We might see a corresponding dip in the revolving credit category though, according to the consumer sentiment index, which declined in the first week of July. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported at 83.9 for the first week of July versus 84.1 from the last week of June.
Initial unemployment insurance weekly claims were virtually unchanged from the previous week. For the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 360,000. This is an increase of 16,000 claims from the previous week.
Producer prices for finished goods increased 0.8 percent as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the month of June. Wholesale trade also increased by 1.6 percent in the month of May, driven by sales of motor vehicles and parts. Inventories declined by 0.5 percent in May.
Gasoline prices nationally were reported at $3.492 for the week ending July 8, a 0.1 percent decline from the week prior and a 4.5 percent decline from the month before. Prices are still 2.4 percent above year earlier levels.
