The Monday Morning Quarterback : A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
U.S. Snapshot
GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2013 was revised upward to 2.5% from 1.7% due to larger than expected export growth and smaller import growth.
Corporate profits increased $78.3 billion (3.9%) in the second quarter, which is positive news compared to a decrease of $26.6 billion (-1.3%) in the first. Corporate profits now stand 5% above year earlier levels.
Personal Income ticked slightly upward on a month over month basis, helping the year over year comparison grow to 3.3% and the personal savings rate remained at 4.4%, a 13.7% decrease from 2012. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index was higher in August, improving to 81.5 from 81.0 the previous month. This is a 33% increase from one year ago.
The S&P/Case Shiller home price index continues to increase. Nationally, the index grew 7.1% over the first quarter, 10.1% over the previous year. Pending home sales were down in July, many citing higher mortgage rates as the cause. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.51 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 29, 2013. Though this is down from the previous week, a year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.59 percent.
Arizona Snapshot
Weekly unemployment claims for Arizona weekly unemployment insurance were down 35.3% from a year ago. Total claims for the week of August 24th were 64,800. This is down 67% from the peak in early 2010.
Lodging performance continues to improve. For the state as a whole, occupancy rates in July (a typically slow month for Arizona) were 54.5% compared to 53.0% in July 2012. Overall demand for rooms was up 2.9% while supply remained flat. For Metro Phoenix, occupancy rates were 48.7% compared to 56.6% in July a year ago from a 4.1% increase in demand for rooms and a 0.4% decline in supply.
According to CRA (a local brokerage firm), builder inventory of single-family homes in Greater Phoenix is at its lowest level in 16 years. There are currently 208 active subdivisions and 11,948 builder owned lots, compared to the peak in 2007 of 710 subdivisions and 61,026 lots.
