The Monday Morning Quarterback :A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
Arizona Snapshot
Total Arizona weekly unemployment claims continue to inch downward and are now 29.0% lower than a year ago.
Retail sales activity in the state continues to grow. Transactions privilege tax retail sales were up 9.1% from a year ago in July. The largest gains were in furniture, food & liquor stores, and motor vehicle dealers.
The Cromford Report showed that active listings in the Greater Phoenix area have been flat over the past year at a level that suggests a tight market. Single-family resales were down 6.4% from a year ago. On the other hand, median prices were up 23.4% over the past year to $180,000. Between June and July, though, median prices fell by 2.2%. We will carefully watch this trend as upward price pressures seem to be continuing.
U.S. Snapshot
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August. This is about in line with the average monthly gain of 184,000 over the prior 22 months. Thus, the economy continues to limp along. Gains in August were in retail trade and health care. Overall, employment over the last year was up a meager 1.6%. Yet, the unemployment rate was down to 7.3% compared to 8.1% a year ago. Much of the drop was due to lack of growth in the labor force.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.3% annual rate during the second quarter of 2013 as output increased 3.7% and hours worked increased 1.4%. Over the last year, however, productivity grew by a modest 0.3% as output and hours worked grew by 2.1% and 1.7% respectively. This is important because productivity growth is closely related to growth in the standard of living.
Manufacturers’ new orders declined last month following three consecutive monthly increases. Yet, orders were up 1.4% in July compared to a year ago. New orders for durable goods were down for the month and are now slightly down from a year ago. Yet, the ISM manufacturing index indicates that the manufacturing sector continues to expand. The index for August stood at 55.7. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. The ISM non-manufacturing index also indicated expansion in August. The index stood at 58.6.
Private construction spending was up in July. While the monthly gain was modest, up 0.9% from June, spending on construction in the private sector was up 13.1% over a year ago. On the other hand, public sector construction was down for the month and is 3.7% lower than a year ago.
