The Monday Morning Quarterback : A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
U.S. Snapshot
Many second quarter statistics were released last week. Real GDP for the second quarter remained unchanged at 2.5% growth (3rd estimate). This exceeded the expectation for a revised 2.2% rate of growth in the second quarter. Growth was only 1.1% in the first quarter.
Corporate profits in the second quarter increased 3.3% over the first quarter and 4.5% over the same time last year.
Personal income increased 3.7% for August 2013 compared to August 2012 while disposable personal income increased 2.8% for the same time period.
Personal savings increased 2.2% for August 2013 (over July 2013), but is down 6.1% from the previous year’s level. Household net worth climbed to $74.82 trillion in the second quarter, 1.8% over the last quarter and 11.5% over the second quarter of 2012.
Arizona Snapshot
Arizona’s transaction privilege tax (sales tax) volume increased 8.3% in August 2013 over August 2012. The categories with the largest growth include Accommodations (46.8%), Professional/Management/Administration (45.4%), Motor Vehicle Dealers (20.2%) and Construction (13.3%).
Arizona weekly unemployment claims decreased 24.8% compared to a year ago and are 1.1% below week earlier levels.
Lodging indicators for the State show a 54.4% occupancy rate for August 2013, an increase from the 52.5% rate from last year. Greater Phoenix’s occupancy rate increased to 49.7% (from 46.8%) over the same period.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index reveals a 1.5% increase in Greater Phoenix housing prices from June 2013 to July 2013, and is 18.9% above last year’s level.
This Week’s Chart
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in September (79.7 vs. 81.8 for August) but should continue to trend upward over the longer term. There are a number of things that have been positively impacting this series. First and foremost are the improvements in housing and the stock market. Wealth levels have returned and people are spending more. Many other economic indicators continue to improve as well.
However, the current changes in uncertainty among consumers appear to relate to Washington D.C. When stupidity can be kept to a minimum (an optimistic baseline scenario), confidence levels tend to improve. It is only when common sense falls down the rabbit hole that economic disruptions occur. The current discussion of shutting down the government is one of those examples. While there should be no long lasting impacts, a few data points might be temporarily sidetracked until the mess is resolved. Expect the series to dip a bit next month as well.
