The Monday Morning Quarterback, a quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
Arizona Snapshot
Arizona weekly unemployment claims decreased 19.3% compared to a year ago. Still, they were up 4.4% from last week’s level.
Greater Phoenix single-family listings on the multiple listing service for the month of November were up 15.4% over a year ago. However, single-family sales were down 25.8% from a year ago, keeping the median price flat from a month ago. Single- family prices were still 20.4% higher than last November.
U.S. Snapshot
The December Blue Chip Consensus forecast calls for the U.S. economy to expand at a modest pace through the end of 2013 and to strengthen slightly in 2014. The Blue Chip Consensus expects year-over-year real GDP growth of 1.7% this year and 2.5% next year. While the 2014 number was up from 2013, it is still below the 20 year expansion average of 3.2%.
The net worth of U.S. families and nonprofit organizations rose 2.6% from the previous quarter to $77.3 trillion as rising home values and gains in the stock market boosted Americans’ balance sheets. That was the highest level in nominal terms since the Federal Reserve began recording in 1945 (see chart below).
Retail sales rose 0.7% in November from October following a better than expected opening of this year’s holiday shopping season. Market expectations were for a 0.6% increase. Autos were a big part of the November boost.
Inflation in November at the producer level softened. The November PPI decreased a slight 0.1% from October. Over the year, PPI was up 0.7%. The bottom line is that inflation is close to nonexistent at the producer level.
