Pollack: Belfiore sees 14% increase in single-family permits in 2014

The Monday Morning Quarterback, A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week

No major changes in direction either way for the economy this week.

U.S. Snapshot

Leading indicators were up a modest 0.1% after a very strong 1.0% gain in November (see chart to left).  Credit conditions, the yield spread, manufacturing orders and the stock market were positives.  Unemployment claims, building permits and consumer expectations were on the negative side.  Overall, though, any gain is still a positive.

Interest rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.39% for the week ending January 23, 2014.  This is down from last week’s 4.41% and up from a year ago when the rate was 3.42%.

December existing home sales were down slightly from a year ago (4,870,000 vs. 4,900,000).  They were up 1.0% from last month.  Median prices averaged $198,000 compared to $180,200 a year ago.  Prices, though, have been flat over the past few months.

Arizona Snapshot

Statewide employment now stands 49,600 jobs or 2.0% over a year ago.  Jobs grew by 6,900 in December over November.  Overall, the private sector added 11,000 jobs and government shed 4,200 jobs over the month.   For the year, eight of eleven major sectors added jobs.  Two reported losses.  One remained flat (see chart to right).

Greater Phoenix did better than the state as a whole with employment gains of 45,400 or 2.5% nonfarm job gains from a year ago.  The unemployment rate dropped to 6.2%.  The largest gains were in trade, transportation & utilities, education & health services, and financial activities.

Greater Tucson added a modest 0.1% in additional jobs over a year ago.  No one sector excelled.

November retail sales for the state were up a strong 10.1% compared to a year ago.  Maricopa County gained 11.8%.  The most notable increase came in autos and light trucks.

Jim Belfiore conducted a 2014 Greater Phoenix single-family permit forecast with 54 participants including homebuilders, developers, investors, real estate brokers and others who follow the market closely.  The median and average forecasts for 2014 were almost identical with 14,545 and 14,500 respectively.  The range was from a high of 17,125 to a low of 11,999.  This is actually a fairly narrow range and would result in 2014 being about 14% better than 2013.