The Monday Morning Quarterback / A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
The past week was light in terms of state specific economic data. However, political discussions about how to improve the economy have been robust. This is where we separate those that understand how an economy functions from the pretenders.
There are a couple of things to pay attention to in the September debates regarding the state’s economic health. First, listen to the broader statements. For example, the government isn’t going to dramatically improve the economy by itself. But, the government can implement policies to help the private sector achieve its full potential. These two sentences may sound similar but they are worlds apart in terms of public policy.
Second, pay attention to how the issue of limited resources is addressed. This will dominate the debates if the moderators know what they are doing. Clearly the state’s budget must be balanced. But, how will politicians also address highway infrastructure issues, workforce development, maintaining a competitive tax policy, etc.? These are factors that support a growing economy. It will be interesting to watch, to say the least.
Now on to the economic statistics…
Arizona Snapshot
Weekly claims for unemployment insurance continued to decline modestly but now stand 33.1% below a year ago.
U.S. Snapshot
U.S. Real GDP was slightly revised. The second quarter of 2014 now stands at 4.2% following a decline of 2.1% in Q1. These are annualized rates.
Consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board, continues to rise in August and now stands at 92.4. As can be seen in the chart below, this is the highest level reported since late 2007. For perspective, a reading of 100.0 is considered “normal.”
New home sales declined 2.4% in July compared to June. However, the two prior months were revised upward. The median new home price declined 3.7% to $269,800 but stands 2.9% above a year ago.
According to CoreLogic, there were 45,000 completed foreclosures nationally, down from 57,000 in July of 2013. That is a 21.2% decline. Before the decline in the housing market, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between 2000 and 2006.
