By Belfiore Real Estate Consulting
Last week, at Belfiore Real Estate Consulting’s quarterly Market Update Presentation and Roundtable Session held at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Phoenix, President of Keystone Homes, Rich Eneim, was crowned 2015 Permit Guru.
Mr. Eneim’s forecast of 11,999 residential permit issuances during 2014 fell closest to the actual number of slightly more than 11,000, based upon final US Census construction data.
Mr. Eneim’s aptitude for such an accurate projection seems to run in the family; just last year, his son, Rich Eneim Jr., was crowned 2014 Permit Guru.
The 60+ industry leaders convened last week at Belfiore Real Estate Consulting’s quarterly event submitted their forecasts for 2015 residential permit issuances. Projections ran the gambit, from Jeff Nielsen of Toll Brothers’ pessimistic prediction of a decline to 9,167 permits to Nate Nathan of Nathan & Associates’ encouraging estimation of 14,900.
Despite their large range, the estimations are notably pessimistic as a whole, with the median projection of 12,499 falling well below Belfiore Real Estate Consulting’s official 2015 residential permit projection of 14,200.
President Jim Belfiore expounds on this unoptimistic result, suggesting the lackluster market over the prior year may have dampened the industry’s spirits. He remarks, “I’m surprised projections were so low but given the year homebuilders experienced, I probably shouldn’t be.”
For further information on this year’s expectations for the housing market or the quarterly Market Update Sessions available to KnowledgeBase subscribers, please contact Jim Belfiore at Belfiore Real Estate Consulting, 480-706-1002, jimbelfiore@belfioreconsulting.com.
