April 24, 2024 5:04 pm
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[OPINION] Why political polls are so often wrong

PollsBy Michael Barone | The Wall Street Journal

(Editor’s note: Opinion pieces are posted for discussion purposes only.)

The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the Kentucky governor race, published Oct. 30, showed Democrat Jack Conway leading Republican Matt Bevin 44%-41%. But in the Nov. 3 election Mr. Bevin won 53%-44%. The polls were wrong, election watchers exclaimed, once again. The RCP average of polls just before Kentucky’s 2014 Senate race showed Mitch McConnell ahead of Democrat Alison Grimes, 49%-42%. Mr. McConnell won, 56%-41%.

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