The Monday Morning Quarterback /A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Because last week was a short work week, this will be a short MMQ. In fact, we have nothing new to report on activity in the state. But, there is some worthwhile national news to report. This includes third quarter GDP, manufacturers’ new orders, personal income and spending, and consumer sentiment. It’s mostly what was expected.
We hope everyone enjoyed (or survived) the holiday season. We also wish you the best for the New Year.
U.S. Snapshot:
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter. In the second quarter, it increased by 3.9%. The second quarter was affected by the catch up from the cold weather in the first quarter that kept shoppers in a sizable part of the country on the sidelines. Slowing in the third quarter primarily reflected a decline in private inventory investment and in exports, in personal consumption expenditures, in nonresidential fixed investment and in state and local government spending. This was anticipated.
Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods were virtually unchanged in November when compared to October. In October, orders were up 2.9%.
Personal income grew by 0.3% in November and now stands 4.4% over a year ago. Disposable personal income was also up 0.3% for the month and now stands 3.9% over a year ago.
Personal consumption expenditures were also up 0.3% and now stands 2.9% above a year ago. As a result, the savings rate increased from 4.6% a year ago to 5.5% at present. This suggests that consumers are still playing their cards close to the vest.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December was 92.6. This is up from 91.3 in November and down from 93.6 a year ago. Overall, consumer sentiment remains a positive.
