ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 25th, 2016
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
The national economy continues its slow advance. Leading indicators continue to increase. Single-family housing continues to advance both nationally and locally. Weekly unemployment claims, an indicator of future unemployment rate trends, is now at its lowest level since 1973. And, the local apartment market continues to have declining vacancy rates and rising rents. Overall, the latest data indicate that the economy continues to move forward.
U.S. Snapshot:
The labor market once again, against a background of soft data, shows itself as the economy’s leading positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to fall and are now at their lowest level since 1973 when, of course, the size of the labor market was much smaller.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. was up 0.2% in March and now stands 2.2% above a year ago.
While gas prices for the week of 4/18 were up 3.1%, they remain 12.8% below year earlier levels.
Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,086,000. This is 7.7% below February levels, but, 4.6% above March 2015. Single-family permits were up 13.2% from a year ago. Single family starts, while down for the month, are now 22.6% above a year ago.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained unchanged. This shows that builders remain cautiously optimistic about construction growth in 2016. Observing solid job growth and low mortgage rates, builders believe that these factors will sustain continued gains in the single family housing market in the months ahead.
Arizona Snapshot:
According to R.L. Brown, single-family housing permits in Greater Phoenix continued to show good results in March. R.L.’s data indicates that 1,621 permits were issued in March, up 18.1% from a year ago. While the percentage gain is lower than in January and February, the comparisons were tougher because it was March 2015 when the housing market accelerated. Year to date through March, permits stands at 4,258. That’s up 32.5% from the 3,214 reported for the similar 2015 period.
Single-family permits in Greater Tucson were up 39.0% from a year ago in March with 271 permits reported. Year to date, single family permits stood at 620. That’s up 31.6% from the similar 2015 period.
Berkadia Phoenix reported that the apartment vacancy rate in Greater Phoenix in the 1st quarter of 2016 was 5.1%. That’s down from 5.3% in the 4th quarter of 2015, but, the same level at the 1st quarter of 2015. Average rent was $925, up from $914in the 4th quarter and $873 from a year ago.
Berkadia also reported that apartment vacancy rates in Greater Tucson in the 1st quarter of 2016 were 6.8%. That compares to 7.6% in the 4th quarter 2015 and 7.6% a year ago.
