The Dealmaker: 10/06/2016

The housing cycle: market by market; John Burns Real Estate Consulting rates Phoenix in an expansion phase. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Phoenix is among the cities undergoing an “Expansion” — with “capital investment, rising sales and prices, good affordability, and low construction” serving as the benchmarks. BTW, thanks to Brian Rosella (vp, Cushman & Wakefield) for bringing this graph and article to our attention. They’re up now, at Rose Law Group Reporter. http://bit.ly/2dBytlm

Phoenix OKs incentives for downtown Fry’s grocery store, high-rise. “The City Council approved on a 7-2 vote a package of financial incentives [$18.3 million plus property-tax breaks] to launch the project [300 apartments,1,500 square feet of office space and… downtown Phoenix’s only grocery store…. by RED Development].” Further details, including the council members who voted AGAINST it — and why — at AZCentral. http://bit.ly/2dhQrYK

REACHING FOR THE SKYE – Scottsdale Skye on McDowell subdivision looks to move into phase two. And what will it take to get to the next phase? According this report in Scottsdale Independent, it will require “a non-major amendment to the [city’s] General Plan 2001… Additionally, the city would need to approve an ordinance requesting a zoning district map amendment…” Click through for more on these resolutions, which are expected to be considered at an Oct. 10 city council meeting. http://bit.ly/2cWVPzu

Homebuilder enters Arizona market at 50,000-home Estrella development. “Texas-based Terrata Homes has plans for 92 homes at Newland Communities’ Estrella development… west of Estrella Mountain Park and south of State Route 85….” Phoenix Business Journal’s Mike Sunnucks also reports that “Terrata’s Goodyear homes will be more than 2,000 square feet on 65-foot-wide lots.” http://bit.ly/2dNRPmI

LEGAL ACTION AHEAD – Goldwater Institute sues City of Scottsdale for targeting farmers market signs. “Represented by… the Goldwater Institute… businesswoman Aaron Shearer filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Scottsdale’s ordinances that regulate signs. Ms. Shearer, owner of Green Bee farmers market, argues that the sign ordinances violate her rights to free speech and equal protection under the state and federal constitutions.” More here: http://bit.ly/2dy4dZ7

Some big U.S. cities see apartment rents fall for first time in years. “San Francisco and New York are leading the way in the downturn,” said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. “People are going to be surprised that this is happening but they shouldn’t be. It’s been too far, too fast.” For more on what The Wall Street Journal calls “a dramatic reversal that could signal the end of a six-year boom,” plus a related link for rent trend data in Phoenix, click it—> http://bit.ly/2dHYYrw

The latest in masterplan amenity innovation. “Velodromes, tree houses, zip lines, and even zoos have become hot new amenities for successful master-planned communities.” John Burns Real Estate Consulting surveyed “more than 270 master-planned communities for [their] annual ranking of the 50 top-selling communities… [and] discovered numerous jaw-dropping amenities.” Check them out, in Rose Law Group Reporter. http://bit.ly/2dVGd59

Refinances help mortgage applications advance. Mortgage News Daily  furnishes us with the latest figures from MBA’s Market Composite Index.  Here’s a peek… While purchasing applications”dip[ped],” the Refi Index “increased by 5 percent from the previous week and the share of refinancing applications increased to 63.8 percent of total activity, up from 62.7 percent…” http://bit.ly/2dhRTu9

Mortgage rates highest since before Brexit. “For most lenders, that means conventional 30yr fixed quotes of 3.5-3.625% for strong scenarios,”  accordingMortgage News Daily. This report goes on to say that today’s higher rates were driven by “much stronger-than-expected economic data.” For Loan Originator Perspectives, Best-Execution Rates, and Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations, you know what to do —> http://bit.ly/2dOi5fQ

Is it time to start worrying about housing prices? Inman’s Sean Becketti looks at how “surging house prices have led some to worry about the potential for another house price bubble.” He writes: “When credit conditions are deteriorating and there are non-financial reasons for high prices, watch out.”
http://bit.ly/2dPhIa5

Dealmaker BONUS: Here’s what the U.S. would look like if everyone lived in a tiny home. In her rather whimsical piece, Realtor.com columnist Yuqing Pan muses about what “the nation [would] look like without McMansions and ranches and rambling old houses with plenty of space to roam… if all households in the U.S…. lived in 250-square-foot tiny homes, clustered together.” [Not to mention what the reactions would be from some of our more high-profile fellow Americans. For example, Trump: “I don’t like it; I want YUGE!”; Tom Cruise: “What are you talkin’ about!? These little things are GIGANTIC!”; Hillary: “At least the walls are narrow; maybe they’ll help support me when I fall.”; Bill Clinton: “And here I thought sneakin’ the ladies by Hil’ and into the Oval Office was tough! Man, I got my work cut out!”] http://bit.ly/2dvGv3d

The World’s Greatest Polo Party Is Only A Month Away! – http://bit.ly/2dvLKfO