Pollack: Shortening things up

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The Source for Information and Analysis on the Arizona Economy and Real Estate

November 28th, 2016
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
There were only 3 working days last week for most non-retail employees.  As a result, the amount of released data was short. In keeping with the spirit of the week, the MMQ will be short as well.
Durable goods orders continue to do well.  Consumer sentiment, which in part reflected post-election readings, was above expectations.  New and existing home sales continued to do well.  In Arizona, home prices continued to increase.  The preliminary GDP numbers will be out this week.  Overall, the data was positive.
U.S. Snapshot:
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 4.8% for the month and now stand 2.1% over a year ago.  Excluding aircraft, they were still up for the month (+0.4%) but, down 4.0% from a year ago.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index stood at 93.8 in November.  This was up from 87.2 in October and 91.3 a year ago.  This reading was above expectations.
  • Existing home sales did well in October.  The level of sales surpassed June’s cyclical sales peak to become the highest annualized rate in nearly a decade.  All major regions saw monthly and annual sales increases in October. Sales of existing homes grew by 2.0% compared to September and now stand 5.9% over a year ago.  Median prices eased 1.3% from September, but, now stand 6.0% over a year ago at $232,200.
  • Sales of new single-family homes in October were down 1.9% from September, but, were up 17.8% from a year ago.  The median price of a new home was up a modest 1.9% from a year ago.
Arizona Snapshot:
  • The FHFA home price index (the index reflects sales of new homes sold with Fanny and Freddie loans) for the 3rd quarter showed prices up 0.8% from the 2nd quarter.  From a year ago, prices for this type of home were up 6.7%.
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November 2016