ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
& Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 30th, 2017
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Here’s a new game I like to call “you pick the adjective”. Ready?
Question: Real GDP in the 4th quarter was:
lackluster
anemic
mediocre
Answer: all of the above.
For 2016 as a whole, real GDP was up only 1.6%. This was the weakest performance since the 1.6% performance recorded in 2011.
As for the rest of the data last week, nothing was special. It was more of the same. We just keep rolling along-slowly. Leading indicators were up. The Trump rally in consumer confidence continued. Existing home sales in 2016 were the best of the decade and new home sales for the year were also strong. In Arizona, supply and demand in the lodging industry continued to improve. Overall, nothing that was unexpected.
U.S. Snapshot:
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the 4th quarter of 2016 which was helped by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending. Partially offsetting this was negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. In the 3rd quarter, real GDP increased 3.5%. For the year as a whole 2016 grew by 1.6% over 2015.
Leading indicators increased by 0.5% in December following a 0.1% increase and a 0.2% gain in November and October, respectively.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index remained very strong in January. The index was at 98.5 compared to 98.2 in December and 92.0 in November. Prospects for future income are the highest in a decade.
Existing home sales closed out 2016 as the best year in a decade even as sales declined in December as a result of ongoing affordability tensions and historically low supply levels. For 2016 as a whole, there were 5.45 million sales compared to 5.25 million in 2015. In December, existing sales decreased 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted 5.49 million level.
Sales of new single family houses in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000. This is 10.4% below the November rate and was 0.4% below a year ago.
Arizona Snapshot:
Statewide hotel occupancy levels in the 4th quarter of 2016 were 61.6% compared to 60.0% a year ago. This is a 2.7% gain over a year ago. Demand grew by 3.5% over the year and supply was up 0.8%.
In Greater Phoenix, hotel occupancy was 64.2% in the 4th quarter compared to 63.6% a year ago. Demand was up 2.3% from year earlier levels and supply was up 1.4%.
