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Pollack: Home ownership rises in Phoenix, declines in Tucson
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The Source for Information and Analysis on the Arizona Economy and Real Estate
EDP LogoELLIOTT D. POLLACK

& Company

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 6th, 2017
 
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
It was a good week for economic data.  The picture painted by the data suggests that the FED has plenty of room to raise rates based not only on strength in the jobs market, but, due to continued growth in other sectors of the economy as well.
Last week’s data showed that January employment growth was stronger than anticipated.   Initial claims for unemployment insurance are near record lows.  The share of full-time workers as a percent of the total continues to slowly increase.  The labor force participation rate has flattened out.  And while the unemployment rate increased slightly, it was due to people reentering the labor force, not lack of job opportunities.  Productivity was up-slowly-but, still up.  Manufacturing did well. Yet, motor vehicle sales modestly slumped.  Despite this, consumer confidence remained strong as did construction spending. Overall, it was a positive picture.
U.S. Snapshot:
  • Non-farm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January.  This compared to expectations of 175,000 new jobs.  This was a strong showing.  Job gains were strongest in retail trade, construction and financial activities.  Only government employment declined.
  • The unemployment rate, the results of which come from a different survey than employment, rose slightly to 4.8% from 4.7% in December.  This indicates that the labor force is growing.
  • Full-time employment as a share of total employment continues to increase.  It was 82% in January compared to 81.7% in December and 81.8% a year ago (see chart below).
  • Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased 1.3% in the 4th quarter of 2016. Output increase 2.2% and hours worked increased by 0.9%.  Productivity is now up 1.0% over a year ago.
  • New orders for manufactured goods in December increased by 1.3%. They have increased in five of the last 6 months.  Inventories increased 0.1%.
  • Consumer spending slowed in January as measured by U.S. motor vehicle sales.  Sales slowed to 17.5 million units at an annual rate compared to December’s 18.3million units (annual rate). This is not as bad as it seems because December’s number was exceptionally strong.
  • Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board, continued to be strong in January.  While the index was down 1.5 points, it maintained its highest three-month moving average since 2001.
  • The ISM manufacturing index rose to 56 in January, up 1.5 points over December.  A reading of above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing index was about flat at 56.5.  This indicates that the non-manufacturing sector is also expanding.
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index reported a 5.6% annualgain in November.  This is up from 5.5% in October.
Arizona Snapshot:
  • The Case-Shiller index for Greater Phoenix was up 5.2% for the year ending November.  That is the same gain as for the year ending in October.
  • The home ownership rate in Great Phoenix rose to 63.4% in the 4th quarter.  This is up from 60.9% a year earlier.  The rate in Greater Tucson declined to 56.5% in the 4th quarter from 58.5% a year earlier.
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