ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 13th, 2017
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Last week continued the trend of good economic news. The unemployment rate continued to dip and employment continued to grow with signs of continued strong demand for labor. The manufacturing sector also continues to improve. Here in Arizona, month over month job losses were reported which is typical for this time of year. The overall employment level represents a 2.4% gain over the same time last year and is entirely attributable to private sector growth. Home sales continue to rise, as does the median price of homes sold.
U.S. Snapshot:
- Unemployment claims in the U.S. rose 20,000 in the first week of March but are still at favorable levels. The data point to continued strong demand for labor.
- Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February. After revisions, over the past 3 months job gains have averaged 209,000 per month. Employment gains for February were observed in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining. Construction has added 177,000 jobs over the past 6 months. Over the year, health care has added an average of 30,000 jobs per month.
- The unemployment rate in February declined slightly 4.7% from 4.8% in January.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.3% annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2016. Output increased 2.4% while hours worked increased 1.0%. Productivity is now 1% above a year ago.
- Manufacturers’ new orders were up 1.2% in January and now stand 3.8% above a year ago. New orders have now increased 6 of the last 7 months. Inventories increased 0.6% from a year ago. The inventories to shipments ratio was unchanged from December.
- Consumer credit grew at a 2.8% annual rate in January. Revolving credit, mainly credit card debt, declined 0.4% (a -4.6% annual rate) for the month and now stands 6.0% above a year ago. Non-revolving credit, mainly auto and student loan debt, increased 0.5% (a 5.5% annual rate) for the month and was up 6.4% from a year ago.
Arizona Snapshot:
- Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 5.0% in January. The U.S. seasonally adjusted rate was 4.8% in January. A year ago, the Arizona rate was 5.5% and the U.S. rate was 4.9%.
- The State reported a loss of 56,700 nonfarm jobs in January which is a larger than average loss historically for this period since 2010. The private sector lost 43,000 jobs and the public sector lost 13,700 jobs. No sector reported gains, though mining reported no losses. Arizona nonfarm employment grew by 2.0% (53,700 jobs) over the year in January. The private sector accounted for more than 100% of the gains, adjusting for the loss of 1,000 government employees.
- Greater Phoenix grew by 47,200 jobs in January 2017 compared to 2016. This equates to a 2.4% gain.
- In Greater Tucson, January 2017 over January 2016 employment growth was 0.2%
- Compared to a year ago, total traffic at Sky Harbor International Airport increased 0.1% in January. Enplanements were up 0.3% while deplanements remained unchanged.
- Active listings of homes in Greater Phoenix were 24,275 in February. This is nearly 11% below the level of listings a year earlier. Sales are up 12.6% from a year ago and the median price of homes sold has increased 8.0% above lastyear.
