Pollack: Phoenix growth ‘anemic,’ but ‘fast’

ELLIOTT D. POLLACK

& Company

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 30th, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week

The Census Bureau released data on the 15 largest cities in the U.S. in terms of population. As of 2016, the City of Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the country.  Keep in mind that this data is for cities, not MSA’s (metropolitan statistical areas- the Greater Phoenix MSA includes cities and towns in both Maricopa and Pinal counties).

The Census report indicates that the City of Phoenix grew from 1,582,904 as of July 1, 2015 to 1,615,017 as of July 1, 2016.  This equates to 2.0% growth over the year.  While that is an anemic number by historic standards, it was the fastest rate of growth of any of the top 15 cities in the country.  This is good news for an area whose population growth has been slow compared to history.  It is also more evidence that the slowdown is a national phenomenon and not due to some change in the characteristics of the local market.  Since many of the reasons for the population slowdown are transitory, this suggests that the outlook is still quite positive.

U.S. Snapshot:

  • Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, is holding steady at optimistic levels, posting a final May reading of 97.1 which was up only 0.1 from April.  A year ago, the reading was 94.7.

  • U.S. manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods in April declined 0.7% from March but were still up 0.9% from a year ago.  Non-defense goods excluding aircraft were flat for the month but up 2.9% from a year ago.

  •  Surprisingly, new home sales were a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000 in April.  This is down 11.4% from the March level of 642,000.  This is below expectations and is likely an aberration.

About EDPCo

Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.  

For more information, contact –

Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200

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