Pollack: Uninterrupted recovery slows – The Monday Morning Quarterback

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February 11th, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week

The limited amount of data that was released this week continues to illustrate an uninterrupted economic recovery but at a slower pace.  Forecasts are moderating to lower levels of growth, but still expect a growing economy for both this year and next. The manufacturing sector also mirrors this trend of continued expansion but at a more modest rate of growth.

Locally, in the single family market, listings are up slightly and resales are down significantly on a month over month and year over year basis.  However, pricing is still increasing, both overall and on a sales per square foot basis.  Across Greater Phoenix, average sales per square foot has surpassed $160/SF. Affordability issues will continue to dominate the discussion for the foreseeable future.

U.S. Snapshot:

  • Blue Chip Economic Indicators dropped the GDP growth rate by 0.1 % for 2019 and 2020. The 2019 decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% and from 1.9% to 1.8% for 2020.
  • Manufacturers’ new orders decreased 0.6% in November but remained 4.1% above a year ago. Inventories were down 0.1% from October but up 4.2% compared to a year ago.

  • ISM’s non-manufacturing index continues to expand. The January level decreased from 58.0 in December to 56.7.
  • U.S. consumer credit increased $16.5 billion from November and 4.7% from a year ago.  The growth continues to be primarily in non-revolving credit ($14.9 billion in car loans and student loans). Non-revolving credit (credit cards) grew by $1.7 billion.
  • U.S. motor vehicle sales were estimated at 16.5 million in January (on a seasonally adjusted annual rate). The January rate decreased 5.1% from December and 1.9% from a year ago.

Arizona Snapshot:

  • According to the Cromford Report, the January active listings (21,528) increased 2.5% from a year ago. Resales decreased 15.5% from December and 11.9% from a year ago.


About EDPCo

Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.  


For more information, contact – 

Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251

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February 2019