ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
& Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 8th, 2019
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Employment made huge strides this month, adding nearly 200,000 jobs, which shows that the U.S. economy is still doing well. Additionally, last month’s employment growth of only 20,000 has been revised upward to 33,000 and that even that number appears to be an aberration on the low side.
To keep the economy on its current trend, the FED is likely to err on the side of not tightening and may even cut rates if the economy eventually slows. But, the FED needs to walk a careful line. At current interest rates, there isn’t much room to lower rates substantially in the face of a significant downturn.
In other news, the employment cost index is now above 3% suggesting that inflation will rise more rapidly in the not too distant future compared to recent inflation. Also, President Trump’s trade strategy with China appears to be bearing some fruit. The ISM manufacturing index is above 50 and increasing. The non-manufacturing index is also above 50 for the 110th consecutive month. Construction activity is also up and recent auto sales were strong.
Overall, the outlook remains positive.
U.S. Snapshot:
Employment bounced back in March adding 196,000. The February number was revised upwards from 20,000 to 33,000. The March gains were concentrated in Educational and Health Services, Professional and Business Services and Leisure and Hospitality. The monthly gains average for the first three months of 2019 is 180,000 which is below the 2018 average of 223,000 for the same period. Hourly earnings increased by 4 cents to $27.70 compared to the 10-cent increase in February.
ISM’s manufacturing index was 55.3 for March. This is a 2.0% increase over February and down 6.7% from a year ago. The index level was below the 12-month average of 57.7.
ISM’s non-manufacturing index for March (56.1) was 3.6 points below February and 2.6 points below a year ago. The index continued above 50 for the 110th consecutive month.
U.S. outstanding consumer credit increased $15.2 billion in the month of February. The gains were again concentrated in nonrevolving credit (car loans and student loans) with a $12.2 billion increase and revolving credit (credit cards) increased $3.0 billion.
Retail sales were underwhelming in February. Retail sales decreased 0.2% from January but increased 2.2% over a year ago.
Both Manufacturers’ and Trade sales and inventories increased in January. Sales increased 2.8% and inventories increased 5.3% over a year ago. The inventories to sale ratio increased to 1.39 compared to the 1.38 in December and 1.36 from a year ago.
U.S. light vehicle sales (SAAR) increased to 17.5 million in March. This is a 5.7% increase from February and 1.4% from a year ago.
Construction spending was up 1.1% over a year ago. The increase was entirely in public construction with an 11.5% increase as private construction decreased 1.9% compared to a year ago.
Arizona Snapshot:
According to the Cromford Report, active listings increased in Greater Phoenix by 9% to 23,790 over a year ago. While the number resales increased in March (8,492) from February (6,526), it is still below last year’s number (9,645).
According to the Information Market, new home sales bounced back in Maricopa County. The March sales volume increased (1,302) compared to February (1,222) but are still below the levels seen last year (1,536).
About EDPCo
Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.
For more information, contact –
Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200
