By Mike Sunnucks | Rose Law Group Reporter
Regional real estate expert Jim Belfiore says home builders, mortgage lenders and others watching the residential real estate market should be careful when they look at one key indicator.
Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting, is preaching care when looking at housing permit data. He said sometimes permit data does not always give the clearest picture of the current housing market.
“Don’t use permits to come up with your business plan,” said Belfiore at a quarterly briefing he gives to home builders and other subscribers to his research services.
Belfiore said sometimes builders stagger when they file for new home construction permits so it might not always give the clearest current market picture. He also said examining permit data also need to consider the significant number of for rent single-family homes and townhouses. Those have been sprouting across metro Phoenix.
Instead, Belfiore said sales data paints a more accurate picture of current conditions
“You have to use sales contracts if you want to know what’s going on in the market today,” Belfiore said.
More long-term housing permit data is still one of the most watched real estate and economic indicators.
Belfiore expects 23,500 new home permits to be filed in the Phoenix region this year. That is down slightly from the 23,553 new permits in 2018. But it is up from previous years.
Metro Phoenix
New Home permits
2018: 23,553
2017: 20,551
2016: 18,577
2015: 16,900
Source: Belfiore Real Estate Consulting
