By George W. Hammond | Real Estate Daily News
The Arizona economy suffered a major shock to the system in March 2020, with government- and self-imposed social distancing and the outright shutdown of important sectors. This sent the national and state economies into a tailspin the likes of which few people have experienced. The impact on Arizona employment, unemployment, retail sales, and income will be devastating. If we can get control of the outbreak by the summer months, the economy has a chance to vigorously rebound. The interim forecast summarized here assumes that this happens, but it is by no means guaranteed.
There is still a huge amount of uncertainty about the future of the outbreak and the economic impacts associated with it. Regarding the outbreak, the question at this point seems to be: will it be very bad or very, very bad. The economic uncertainties are similar. We are on track for a major downturn, the question is how bad and for how long. This interim forecast update is our first step in assessing the damage and the recovery. As events unfold in coming weeks and months, we will know more about the economic impacts and the prospects for recovery. Stay tuned to the Forecasting Project website for updated information.
