By Russ Wiles | Arizona Republic
As Arizona and other states gradually reopen their economies, grim headlines will persist for months. But better news may not be far off.
Arizona State University economists are predicting a recession of three to nine months, followed by a swift recovery if consumer spending — bolstered by heavy federal stimulus — kicks in as they expect.
“We’re going to see some startling numbers,” said Dennis Hoffman, an ASU economics professor, citing what he expects will be annualized drops in national Gross Domestic Product during the second quarter of between 20% and 40% and unemployment rates for Arizona that could exceed 15%.
However, Hoffman and other speakers at an annual forecasting webinar hosted by the W.P. Carey School of Business and the Economic Club of Phoenix expect a relatively quick V-shared recovery as suppressed consumer spending and service industries rebound.
And in some ways, Arizona could emerge from the downturn well-positioned to attract further business investment and expansion.
