By Jeremy Duda | Arizona Mirror
Arizonans learned in 2018 not to trust any leads at the end of Election Day as they watched Democrats overtake their Republican opponents in the days that followed as ballot counting finished. The same thing may happen this year if the contests for president, U.S. Senate and other key races are close at the end of Nov. 3, though it remains to be seen which party will benefit this time around.
Historically, Democratic candidates in statewide races gain ground after Election Day. In most recent elections, that shift has had no effect on the outcome of the races, with Republicans’ health leads shrinking, but not nearly enough for Democrats to seize the lead. But In 2018, GOP candidates’ narrow leads in the races for U.S. Senate, secretary of state, superintendent of public instruction and Corporation Commission evaporated post-Election Day, and Democrats ultimately gained enough votes to win.
And while the 2018 shift toward Democrats was larger than normal, it was far from unusual. From 2010 through 2018, Democratic candidates gained on their Republican opponents in 21 of 22 statewide contests — not counting races for the Corporation Commission — and trimmed their margins of victory.
