By Alison Steinbach, Meena Venkataramanan | Arizona Republic
After more than a year of several case, hospitalization and death surges, trends for the illness have been remaining steady at far lower levels than previous months. More people are getting vaccinated and safely taking off their masks.
“We’re at the beginning of the end,” said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor of public health at the University of Arizona’s Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health.
Gerald said he foresees cases continuing at a moderate level through the summer before tailing off in July or August, but doesn’t think there is a strong likelihood of a massive outbreak like those that happened last summer and winter.
As this new phase of the pandemic unfolds, The Arizona Republic is changing how it continues to record the pandemic’s progress. For 14 months, reporters published daily updates with the latest case, hospitalization and death numbers from across the state, in addition to other trends.
Those numbers will now be captured in the COVID-19 updates blog and in a weekly recap story on Fridays online and in the newspaper on Sundays. The Republic will no longer be publishing a daily story detailing the latest COVID-19 metrics.
Arizona’s seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases has fluctuated between about 500 and 800 for the past two months. The average had reached as high as 9,800 in January, according to state data.
Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of the Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, has an optimistic view of the pandemic’s trajectory.
“I actually feel like we do see the end in sight,” he said. “I think the likelihood of a surge in Arizona is low at this point. It would take a lot for us to get to a point where we would see a surge like before.”
