By Stacey Barchenger | Arizona Republic
Arizona’s extraordinary growth in the past decade was driven by residents of color, a diverse array of voters who helped Joe Biden win the state in 2020 and could shift the state’s political landscape further to the left.
Yet the traditional thought that racial diversity equals easy votes for Democrats may not hold up in Arizona, at least not immediately, political consultants and strategists said.
Demographic groups don’t vote as a monolith. Metro Phoenix is booming, but typically conservative suburbs are rapidly growing, too. And an ongoing political process that decides who votes where will determine the state’s political balance.
Arizona’s redistricting process is underway and must account for demographic changes in the past decade.
The census data released Thursday lays the foundation for states to draw maps that determine who represents voters in Congress and at the state Capitol, aiming to make each vote count equally.
“Arizona is becoming more diverse, it is becoming more urban, which for Democrats is probably encouraging,” said Ron Ober, a Democratic strategist from Phoenix. “But it really depends on how lines are drawn and how competitive districts are.”