By Logan Mohtashami | Housingwire
We are at the point of the economic cycle where I really just get two questions: Are we going into recession and are home prices about to fall? I am going to do my best to try to make sense of what is happening with the housing market right now, since the years 2020-2024 have been a talking point of mine for years and my biggest concern since the fall of 2020 has been prices overheating — not having a deflationary collapse. For over a decade, a lot of people didn’t believe in housing inflation but in the deflationary housing story, which hasn’t ended well for them since 2012. Talking about this from a historical standpoint will help us understand better what is happening today.
I have separated my work into two different time frames: 2008-2019 and 2020-2024.In the years 2008-2019 we saw the weakest housing recovery ever. I predicted that purchase application data wouldn’t reach 300 until years 2020-2024 and housing starts wouldn’t start a year at 1.5 million until then as well. In contrast, I knew 2020-2024 would have the best housing demographic patch ever as the country’s biggest demographic group hits the median age for first-time homebuyers.
Let’s look back at how some people have interpreted housing market data.
A short history of the housing crash narrative
2012:What they said: Shadow inventory will cause prices to fall. The reality: Inventory broke down in 2012, and the monthly supply data got below 6.0 months. The “shadow inventory” was not an issue as it took years to get rid of the distressed supply from the housing bubble years.
2013: What they said: Because mortgage rates were rising and the Fed was tapering, housing would crash. The reality: The 10-year yield shot up from 1.60% to 3% (sound familiar?), making housing cool down noticeably. Nominal home price growth cooled down, but we had no negative year-over-year price declines as inventory didn’t even get over five months back then.
