Kari Lake holds up Donald Trump’s endorsement at an Oct. 2 event in Cave Creek for her gubernatorial campaign. /Photo by Jeremy Duda / Arizona Mirror
Numbers diverge sharply when respondents are aware of Trump endorsement of Lake
BY: DILLON ROSENBLATT | Arizona Mirror
Internal Republican polling shows a statistical tie between gubernatorial candidates Kari Lake, the former news anchor, and Karrin Taylor Robson, the former university regent and developer, but those numbers separate greatly when those polled were informed that Donald Trump backs Lake’s candidacy.
The poll, conducted by the Republican-leaning Data Orbital and obtained by the Arizona Mirror, has Lake slipping under 30% for the first time during her campaign. She’s at 27.4% compared to Robson’s 23.3%, with a margin of error at 4.3% qualifying it as a “statistical tie.” It surveyed 550 Republican voters, asking them about statewide races that will be on the ballot for the Aug. 2 primary election as well as what their top issue is to motivate their vote.
Polling should never be taken at face value since voters’ minds can change by Election Day, especially based on what they may learn about candidates throughout the campaign cycle. Politicos usually point out that each survey is always a “point in time” measure and something that happens in June won’t reflect the race in July or August. The findings of this poll are based specifically on if the election was happening right now and not in roughly two months time.
Rounding out the governor’s race was former Congress member Matt Salmon at 12% and the two longshot candidates Scott Neely and Paola “Z” Tulliani-Zen at 3% and less than 1%, respectively.
Interestingly, Salmon is the only major candidate whose polling increased since May, while “undecided” still leads the group at 31.1%.
The poll was conducted between June 1 and 3. May numbers had Lake at 35.5%, Robson at 26.8% and Salmon at 10.1%, with undecided at 23.3%.
