Opinion: Did Democrats or independents help Kari Lake and other America First candidates win by voting for them? A look at turnout data suggest otherwise.
By Abe Kwok || Arizona Republic
Did Democrats or independents really vote for Kari Lake in the primary to get the general election matchup they wanted?
One of the theories floated in the aftermath of Arizona’s primaries was that non-Republican voters flocked to the GOP side to vote for the most extreme candidates.
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That is, they acted on a coordinated campaign to set up Democrats for a win in the general election.
It would be a convenient explanation for the sweeping victories by America First candidates.
But that scenario is highly unlikely.
While statewide figures are not readily available, the recent canvassing, or formal tallying, of votes in Maricopa County – which account for nearly 60% of all ballots cast in Arizona – is illustrative.
Higher GOP turnout fuels speculation of a fix
The county did experience a higher-than-usual turnout in the Aug. 2 Republican primary (59%), considerably higher than for the Democratic primary (47%).
The GOP turnout is some 9 percentage points higher than the previous midterm primary in 2018. But there’s no evidence Democrats defected; their turnout was up this year, too, though by a more modest couple of percentage points.
Could independents have given far-right conservatives a boost? Their turnout in Arizona primaries hit a new high of 13.7% this year, and a greater percentage of them opted for a Republican ballot than in 2018.
Nearly 75,000 Maricopa County independents requested a GOP ballot (it pushed up the Republican turnout to 59%, from about 51%). That theoretically could have propelled gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake to her narrow victory of fewer than 14,000 votes in metro Phoenix.
