Republicans poised to gain Arizona congressional seats 

House Agriculture Committee members Ann Kirkpatrick, left, of Arizona, and Cindy Axne, right, of Iowa, chat following the committee’s organizational meeting in Washington on Thursday, January 24.Kirkpatrick, a Tucson Democrat, is retiring this year and Rep. Tom O’Halleran of Sedona is in a red district, while Rep. Greg Stanton, a former Phoenix mayor, is in a semi-competitive district that leans Democrat. /Photo Credit House Agriculture Committee

By Camryn Sanchez | Arizona Capitol Times 

Republicans see an opportunity to snag some of the Democrat-controlled congressional seats for themselves this year.

Arizona Democrats hold a thin one-seat majority over Republicans in the congressional delegation at 5-4, but Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Tucson Democrat, is retiring this year and Rep. Tom O’Halleran of Sedona is in a red district, while Rep. Greg Stanton, a former Phoenix mayor, is in a semi-competitive district that leans Democrat.

The most competitive district looks to be the 6th after Kirkpatrick announced on March 12, 2021, that she would not run for re-election. That open seat is in what is now a red district.

The 6th District is in southeastern Arizona and mostly excludes Tucson, which is blue and safely tucked into Congressman Raul Grijalva’s district. In the general election in the 6th Congressional District it will come down to Juan Ciscomani, a former adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey, and former state Senator Kirsten Engel.

Ciscomani went against Republican Brandon Martin, who had been endorsed by former President Donald Trump in October of 2020, when he ran for the 2nd Congressional District. This year, he lost in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District in a landslide. Neither candidate was endorsed by Trump this year, and Ciscomani beat Martin handily 47% to 21%.

GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin anticipates that the 2nd District and the 6th District have the most potential to be flipped.

“Kirkpatrick at the top of the list, because there’s no incumbent running; it’s an open seat,” Coughlin said. “And, the district has been substantially changed and  Ciscomani is a good candidate who’s raised a lot of money. Engel tends to be, you know, I think she’s a little left of where the district is, and so, and given the cycle with a significant Republican turnout advantage. I would say that’s the most likely one. I’d say the next one is O’Halleran. Very difficult, that district is substantially changed after redistricting. It’s significantly more Republican, but you know, the flip side, the reason I hesitate is because he is an incumbent. He’s worked really hard.”\

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