Eva Burch
The Arizona Senate race in west Mesa’s Legislative District 9 is expected to be one of the most competitive this year.
By Ray Stern || Arizona Republic
The hope of Republicans to keep their lawmaking power in Arizona, and of Democrats to take it away, rests heavily this midterm election with a state Senate race in west Mesa.
The contest is a virtual toss-up, on paper at least, between candidates who represent two of the biggest issues of the 2022 election cycle: Trump and abortion.
It’s a bellwether race to election observers: A win this November by retired Mesa police Sgt. Robert Scantlebury, a Republican endorsed by former President Donald Trump, would mean the state is going firmly to the far right.
On the other hand, a win by Eva Burch, a nurse and reproductive rights activist, would be the first step in a potential takeover of the state Senate by Democrats.
The competitors have battled in advertisements and door-knocking campaigns. Burch, who considers her policy ideas progressive, has focused on abortion, health care and public schools, while Scantlebury has taken up Republican issues such as crime, border security and economic problems.
The new Legislative District 9, which takes in most of Mesa west of Val Vista Drive, is one of only five truly competitive districts out of 30 in the state. Party registration is balanced nearly evenly, making the race a toss-up — in theory.
That balance could mean trouble for Scantlebury. He’s the only Trump-endorsed candidate in Arizona who’s running in a district that isn’t Republican-safe.
The district also is the only one of the five that leans Democratic; the other four lean Republican. Independents, who make up the majority of voters in the district, are all-important to victory for either contender.
Democrats need to win three open Senate seats in the state’s five most competitive legislative districts to achieve a 15-15 tie in the Senate, which won’t be easy. Burch beating Scantlebury is part of their plan.
“It’s a very diverse district in education, income and ethnicity,” said former Mesa Vice Mayor Dennis Kavanaugh, who lives and works in the district. “It’s bluish-purple. … There’s not a history in the district of really MAGA-type Republicans representing it in the Legislature or on the City Council.”
That makes Kavanaugh, a Democrat, “cautiously optimistic” that the election will go badly for Scantlebury and the two Republicans running for the district’s open House seats.
