Sinema has a story to tell that could shake up the race. But she won’t know until she tells it.
ROBERT ROBB
Substack
Kyrsten Sinema has been on what could be called a “I-delivered-the-bacon” tour this summer. It illustrates why I think the current polls underestimate her prospects of winning re-election as an independent if she runs. And don’t accurately indicate the balance between the two parties of where she will ultimately draw her support.
The tour was partially in person, appearing in Lake Havasu and Bullhead City to tout what they will get from the $4 billion in drought mitigation funds she squeezed into the fraudulently named Inflation Reduction Act. In Flagstaff, she featured the dough for low-emissions buses and other public transportation improvements from her $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. In Yuma, it was a billion bucks to help the community cope with the effects of illegal immigration.
And the tour was in part virtual, a steady drumbeat of press releases and tweets announcing or touting federal funds she has procured for local governments and community organizations, even some private businesses.
For most politicians, taking credit for federal grants is somewhat like the rooster claiming that his crowing makes the Sun rise. That, however, isn’t the case for Sinema. Her claims of credit are mostly sound.
Sinema arguably is the most effective legislator in Congress. That’s in part because she concentrates on legislating, actually passing bills. These days, most members of Congress concentrate on the three Ps: pontificating, preening, and posturing. The act of legislating is just a theater for performances of the three Ps.
But it is also her approach to legislating in a divided Congress. That tack was described in a press release about a town hall with the U.S. Hispanic Business Council: “The Senator underscored how her approach – building consensus, refusing to demonize those with whom she disagrees, and toning down the temperature in Washington – has cut through partisan gridlock to deliver real, lasting solutions for the Grand Canyon State.”
Sinema has been a principal architect of the most significant legislation of the Biden administration: The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the $280 billion computer chip subsidy, and the Inflation Reduction Act with a sticker price of $435 billion but which outside experts now think will cost considerably more. And she got Arizona benefits embedded in each.
Now, this is not a brief for Sinema’s re-election on the merits. I think all of those big spending bills were wrongheaded. The federal government’s finances are a wreck. This wasn’t a time to go on deficit-financed spending sprees.
But, as a matter of political analysis, Sinema has a pretty good story to tell if she runs for re-election and, as a generally pro-business legislator, she should be able to raise the campaign funds to tell it. She can make a credible claim to be the legislative workhorse who delivers for Arizona.
It’s important to note that all of these accomplishments involve the federal government doing more for more people. Sinema is a liberal, and particularly so on social issues. She’s just not a partisan.
The presumptive Democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, can’t credibly claim to be able to deliver for Arizona the way Sinema has, particularly in a closely divided Senate. He won’t have the leverage she has been able to accumulate and deploy.
It’s not that Gallego is less independently minded than Sinema. He is smart and serious. But he genuinely believes in progressive policies that are the center of gravity in today’s Democratic Party and has no problem cramming them down the throats of Republicans. He’s not going to be a holdout for a big-spending Inflation Reduction Act, and thus be positioned to embed $4 billion in drought mitigation that disproportionately benefits Arizona.
If Republicans take over the Senate, Gallego would become largely irrelevant. Sinema would still be a player.
Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats this election cycle, including in three states that Donald Trump carried in 2020. The Republicans are defending just 10, and none in states that Joe Biden won. With the pre-Trumpian Republican Party, a GOP takeover of the Senate would be as close to a sure thing as there is in politics.
Even the pre-Trumpian Republican Party had its intransigents, particularly when it came to things such as approving budgets or debt limit increases. An independent willing to deal, even if reflexively liberal, would have opportunities.
What Arizona Democrats mostly know about Sinema is that she wouldn’t jettison the filibuster to pass progressive legislation, such as substantially increasing federal standards for the conduct of elections. She’s significantly underwater with Democrats in current polls. And the attacks she has endured from progressive activists have tainted her image generally.
But if she runs, her story as the legislative workhorse who delivered big dollars for Arizona could improve her standing among Democrats, other than the progressive activists who will never forgive her. Her nonpartisan approach to legislating has natural appeal to independents. And she’s the default option for Republicans who can’t stomach Trump or the MAGA nominee the Arizona GOP is sure to proffer for the Senate.
Gallego can’t credibly remake himself as a nonpartisan problem-solver. The presumptive GOP nominee, Kari Lake, won’t even try.
The polls are a snapshot of where things are, not a prediction of where things will end up. If Sinema decides to run, she has a story that could shake things up. But it might be a late-breaking thing. Until she tells her story, conveyed broadly through significant campaign expenditures, she won’t really know how good of a chance she might have.
