“[Abortion] being on the ballot reminds people, it makes it even more salient,” said Nichole Johnson, campaign manager for Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is running for Senate in Arizona as a Democrat. “But regardless, it is going to be important.”
ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN, JESSICA PIPER and MADISON FERNANDEZ
POLITICO
Democrats are scrambling to put state abortion-rights initiatives on the ballot this year in the hope that the measures will drive turnout and boost their candidates in national and local elections.
But those initiatives may not give Democrats the lift they are aiming for, according to a POLITICO analysis of five abortion-related measures that have appeared on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022.
Voters decisively upheld abortion rights in every single case. But those margins were largely driven by Republican voters who also voted for GOP candidates. And Democratic turnout didn’t consistently increase in states with abortion referendums compared to those without. Several Democrats who were on the same ballots as abortion measures lost their races. Meanwhile, many Democrats who ran as champions of abortion rights even in states without accompanying referendums outperformed expectations.
“It would be unwise for candidates in either party to think that an abortion-rights ballot initiative will automatically determine who wins or loses a race,” cautioned John LaBombard, a longtime adviser of swing- and red-state Democrats, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “On the margins, ballot initiatives can help illuminate differences between the candidates — even in deeply red states where voters are increasingly likely to vote based on partisanship. But voters can view them separately from the initiative itself.”
Efforts are underway to put abortion rights on the 2024 ballot in around a dozen states, including Arizona, Nevada and Florida, states that could have an outsized impact on control of the Senate and the presidential election.
Abortion rights supporters cheering during an election night event in Columbus, Ohio in 2023.
2024 is poised to have the most abortion rights ballot initiatives since Roe was overturned. | Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images
As President Joe Biden signals he will make abortion a key plank of his reelection bid, and Democrats up and down the ballot work to channel ongoing public outrage over abortion bans, both Republican and Democratic strategists say the issue remains toxic for the GOP and that ballot initiatives could force candidates on both sides to talk about it and provide voters with a clear contrast.
“It’s not necessarily a death knell for Republicans but it is a net negative,” said Stan Barnes, a political consultant and former Republican state senator in Arizona, where progressive groups are working to put an abortion-rights amendment before voters. “The ballot measure drives the point and it compels candidates to take a position, and that can be a difficult thing to do for a pro-life candidate because most people want some sort of legal abortion right.”
