Russell Contreras, Margaret Talev
Phoenix Axios
About a quarter of Arizona voters who cast a ballot in November are expected to be Latino, according to an analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund released last month.
That mirrors the share of Latino voters in 2020 and represents an increase of almost 20% from 2016.
Why it matters: Latino voters, an increasingly ideologically and racially diverse demographic, have helped swing tight races in battleground states like ours and are expected to play a critical role in November.
The intrigue: In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Latinos favored Democratic presidential candidates over Republican ones.
Yes, but: Democrats, including President Biden, have slowly been bleeding support among Latino and Black voters.
A compilation of New York Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023 shows that Biden has lost the support of Black and Hispanic voters across ages, genders and education levels since 2020.
Between the lines: Latino men surprised pundits by more strongly supporting Donald Trump in 2020 than was expected, based on his 2016 showing.
A plurality of Latinos now says “neither” when asked which major political party cares more about them, according to a June Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll.
