Photo via Office of Governor Katie Hobbs
By Reagan Priest | State Affairs
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is switching Arizona’s gubernatorial race rating from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic,” signalling a slight leg up for Gov. Katie Hobbs’ reelection bid.
Hobbs is “still very much a Republican target,” according to the nonpartisan political analysis project out of the University of Virginia. But Arizona pollster Mike Noble said he’s surprised the rating shift didn’t come sooner.
“My takeaway on this race mainly is: What took them so long?” Noble said. “I think the rating change is justified. I think it’s spot on to the reality.”
Sabato’s analysis said Hobbs’ campaign caught a break when Karrin Taylor Robson exited the race leaving two congressmen in her wake. As Democrats build a case against Republicans supportive of President Donald Trump’s agenda, facing off against a candidate with a record on the president’s biggest priorities will only help Hobbs.
Noble said Hobbs’ high favorability and job approval ratings, moderate positions, and massive campaign war chest warrant the rating shift. Additionally, Noble noted that the whole country is seeing high Democratic voter enthusiasm and independent voters leaning left.
