(Disclosure: Rose Law Group represents Ashton Woods, DR Horton, Lennar, Mattamy and Richmond American.)
By John Carroll | Real Estate Daily News
The mid-year residential land update looks very different from what it was in 2025. The 2026 land market has come back with conviction. After a 2025 that honestly felt like we were waiting on everyone to get things together, the first six months of this year have been a different story. Permits are up, sales rates are strong, and builders are buying lots — a lot of lots. The competitive environment for good, entitled, infrastructure-ready ground has gotten real. In 2025, the pause was just setting in, and in 2026, all signs point to things heating up around Tucson.
Increase after increase
Through the first five months of 2026, Tucson has recorded 1,538 single-family permits — a 10.65% increase over the same stretch in 2025. Annualized, we’re on track to issue approximately 3,691 permits by year-end. I want to highlight that this would represent a 20% + increase over last year. Selling season started off strong and paused midway through, but the numbers are up, and that is what most builders are looking at.
The monthly breakdown tells the story: January ripped out of the gate up nearly 33% year-over-year. February was up another 12.5%. March dipped slightly — more about lot delivery timing than anything demand-side. April came roaring back at +22.85%, and May came in slightly under last year’s pace. Nothing in that pattern worries me. What we see is a market that’s expanding in a disciplined way, not overheating, not stalling. The trend line points up and to the right. That’s what we want.
Sales Velocity Is Real — Builders Are Writing Contracts
This isn’t just a permit story: multiple builders have consistently contracted on more than 50 homes per month since January. Six straight months of 50-plus net contracts at a market the size of Tucson isn’t luck — that’s real demand, real buyers, and builders confident enough in their lot supply to open the throttle.
This pace justifies new community openings. It justifies active investment in the land and lot pipeline, and the transaction in the first half points to this. We do not see any signs of this slowing down in the most active areas.
