The Monday Morning Quarterback : A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
By Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Arizona Snapshot:
Arizona’s employment situation is still positive, with growth being posted in nearly every employment category. The State ranks 11th in the nation for employment growth through April. This was up from 13th as of last month. A number of states are closely packed together in terms of employment growth rates, so don’t be surprised if our ranking moves around some in the next few months. Arizona is still a top 10 state for job growth over the longer term. We may achieve this by the end of the calendar year.
U.S. Snapshot
Most U.S. indicators were slightly positive or relatively neutral this past week. Consumers are feeling a little bit better, but business investment is still slow to develop. This was to be expected during much of 2013 so we are basically still on track for modest growth this year.
Arizona
For the first one-third of the year, employment growth in the State was at 1.9%. Construction employment was up 7.0%, followed by Information (3.8%), Leisure and Hospitality (3.6%), and Financial Activities (3.4%). The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 7.9%. Greater Phoenix figures are better than the statewide average at 2.4% YTD, while Greater Tucson was lagging at 1.0% YTD. Arizona retail sales for March were up 8.1% compared to last year. Some accounting issues may be affecting this figure. While not overly impressive, all of this data is consistent with our previous economic forecasts for the State.
National
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 9.8% above last week’s figures to 360,000 claims. However, this data varies from month to month, making the four week moving average of only 0.4% (compared to last week) a better indicator. Compared to last year, the moving average was down 9.7%. U.S. Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was up 9.6% compared to last month, and was up 5.5% compared to last year. The recently positive employment figures have likely contributed to an improved consumer outlook. The U.S. Composite Index of Leading Indicators for April was up 0.6%, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index was down 0.4% from last month. Other indicators were either relatively flat or only slightly negative. Unless you work for the IRS, the past week wasn’t all that bad.
