Opinion: Republicans are giving Arizona swing voters – who will likely decide the outcome in 2022 – an unnecessarily difficult choice.
Validate an unsatisfactory Joe Biden presidency or strengthen Donald Trump’s place in politics? That’s the choice Republicans are presenting for Arizona’s swing voters.
By Robert Robb | Arizona Republic
Arizona swing voters face a dilemma and a difficult choice this November, mostly because it is the choice Republicans are presenting: Validate an unsatisfactory Joe Biden presidency or strengthen Donald Trump’s place in our politics.
The story of Arizona politics since 2018 has been the return of the swing voter.
This is truly a return. Split-ticket voting had been characteristic of Arizona politics since the 1950s, when Republicans began chipping away at what was then Democratic dominance in the state.
Rural Democrats were willing to vote for a Republican. Urban Republicans were willing to vote for a Democrat.
As late as 2006, Republican Jon Kyl won the U.S. Senate election by 10 percentage points. Democrat Janet Napolitano won the governorship by 18 percentage points. Obviously, there were a lot of Arizonans who voted for both.
Arizona had a long Democratic drought
In 2008, Democrats won two Corporation Commission seats. There was then a drought for Democrats that lasted four election cycles, during which no Democrats won a statewide election.
After the election in 2012, Arizona had no Democrat holding statewide office for the first time since statehood, a century earlier.
The reasons for the drought have never been obvious to me. The rural counties becoming mostly Republican rather than mostly Democrat had something to do with it. But that’s far from a sufficient explanation.
Then split-ticket voting returned with a vengeance.
Regardless, split-ticket voting returned with a vengeance in 2018. There were 225,000 Arizonans who voted for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate and Republican Doug Ducey for governor. Sinema’s margin of victory was just 56,000 votes.
And it wasn’t just in the high-profile races. Voters in that election chose Republicans for attorney general and treasurer, but Democrats for secretary of state and school superintendent. There were two Corporation Commission seats on the ballot. A Republican won one and a Democrat the other.
The 2020 election leaned more strongly Democratic. Democrats won the presidential election in Arizona and the U.S. Senate seat on the ballot, giving Democrats both of Arizona’s U.S. senators for the first time since 1952. However, Republicans won two of the three Corporation Commission positions up for grabs.
The rise of independent registration helped.
