To: Conservative Leadership for Arizona Supporters
From: Sean Noble
RE: Update on State of the Governor’s Race in Arizona – June 5, 2014
As we have said repeatedly, campaigns matter. Three weeks ago, Conservative Leadership for Arizona (CLA) commissioned a statewide Republican primary voter poll that showed Ducey with a commanding lead. A new poll this week shows the same (attached).
Here is the current state of the Governor’s race:
Ducey 28%
Smith 16%
Jones 12%
Bennett 12%
Thomas 5%
Melvin 2%
Riggs 2%
Undecided 23%
Below is a comparison of the ballot test in all three polls CLA has commissioned:
April 10 May 15 June 5
Bennett 15% 13% 12%
Ducey 9% 27% 28%
Jones 14% 12% 12%
Smith 6% 12% 16%
Thomas 6% 6% 5%
Melvin 1% 3% 2%
Riggs 1% 1% 2%
Undecided 45% 28% 23%
As you may recall, the April poll showed that all of the candidates were essentially undefined. The vast majority of primary voters either had no opinion of the candidates or had never heard of them. That has now changed, as evidenced by the shrinking number of undecideds and by movement in the image ratings.
Here are some image ratings comparisons between the poll from May and the current poll:
May 15 June 5
Bennett 24% Fav/12% Unfav 26% Fav/15% Unfav
Ducey 37% Fav/16% Unfav 39% Fav/21% Unfav
Jones 19% Fav/22% Unfav 22% Fav/27% Unfav
Smith 17% Fav/14% Unfav 23% Fav/17% Unfav
Here are the takeaways from the ballot test and the Fav/Unfav tests.
As the race continues to get attention, there is a slight uptick in Favorables for every candidate – that is a natural occurrence.
What is striking is that Christine Jones’ image rating is going further upside down as the campaign progresses. Our belief is that this is a combination of her not resonating with voters, the criticism she is getting for her claims to having been a prosecutor and, most recently, an ad by Veterans For a Strong America that highlights her praise of Hillary Clinton after the Benghazi terrorist attack.
CLA will continue to leverage the momentum of Ducey’s lead. Earlier this week we re-launched a pro-Ducey ad on statewide cable and added an ad that highlights Governor Scott Walker’s endorsement of Ducey.
Additionally, with the Ducey campaign going up on broadcast and cable this week, we expect future polling to continue to show that Ducey is the clear frontrunner in this race and closer to becoming the next Governor of Arizona.
Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 630n autodial survey of likely Republican primary voters, and independent and unaffiliated voters that are likely to vote in the Republican primary election in the state of Arizona. The interviews were conducted June 3rd and 4th,
2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.90% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past Republican primary election voting demographics.
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter?
Republican …………………………………………………….. 86% Independent …………………………………………………… 14%
T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters)
Extremely likely ………………………………………………. 79%
Very likely ……………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat likely ……………………………………………….. 5%
T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self- identified as independent or unaffiliated voters)
Republican primary ……………………………………….. 100%
Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
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T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans)
Extremely likely ………………………………………………. 92%
Very likely ……………………………………………………….. 6%
Somewhat likely ……………………………………………….. 2%
T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett?
Favorable ………………………………………………………. 26%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 15%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 34%
Never heard of ………………………………………………. 22% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 3%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 75% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 41%
T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey?
Favorable ………………………………………………………. 39%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 21%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 31%
Never heard of ………………………………………………… 8% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 1%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 91% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 60%
T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones?
Favorable ………………………………………………………. 22%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 27%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 29%
Never heard of ………………………………………………. 21% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 1%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 78% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 49%
Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
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T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith?
Favorable ………………………………………………………. 23%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 17%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 32%
Never heard of ………………………………………………. 25% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 3%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 72% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 40%
T9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Horne?
Favorable ………………………………………………………. 20%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 60%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 15%
Never heard of ………………………………………………… 2% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 3%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 95% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 80%
T10. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Brnovich?
Favorable ………………………………………………………… 7%
Unfavorable ………………………………………………….. 13%
No opinion ……………………………………………………. 29%
Never heard of ………………………………………………. 49% Unsure ……………………………………………………………. 2%
Name ID ………………………………………………………. 49% Hard name ID ………………………………………………… 20%
Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
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T11. If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Ken Bennett, Doug Ducey, Christine Jones, Al Melvin, Frank Riggs, Scott Smith, and Andrew Thomas?
Doug Ducey ………………………………………………….. 28%
Scott Smith …………………………………………………….. 16%
Christine Jones ……………………………………………….. 12%
Ken Bennett …………………………………………………… 12%
Andrew Thomas ……………………………………………….. 5%
Al Melvin ………………………………………………………… 2%
Frank Riggs ……………………………………………………… 2% Undecided …………………………………………………….. 23%
T12. If the Republican primary election for Attorney General were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Tom Horne and Mark Brnovich?
Mark Brnovich ……………………………………………….. 43%
Tom Horne ……………………………………………………. 26% Undecided …………………………………………………….. 31%
T13. If the Republican primary election for Secretary of State were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Wil Cardon, Michele Reagan and Justin Pierce?
Michele Reagan ……………………………………………… 20%
Wil Cardon ……………………………………………………. 18%
Justin Pierce …………………………………………………… 15% Undecided ……………………………………………………. 47%
T14. If the Republican primary election for Treasurer were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Jeff DeWit, Randy Pullen, and Hugh Hallman?
Hugh Hallman ……………………………………………….. 14%
Jeff DeWit ……………………………………………………… 13%
Randy Pullen ……………………………………………………. 8%
Undecided …………………………………………………….. 65%
Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
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T15. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to fiscal issues like taxes and government spending?
Very conservative ……………………………………………. 45%
Conservative ………………………………………………….. 37%
Moderate ………………………………………………………. 16% Liberal …………………………………………………………….. 2%
T16. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage?
Very conservative ……………………………………………. 41%
Conservative ………………………………………………….. 26%
Moderate ………………………………………………………. 19%
Liberal …………………………………………………………… 14%
T17. If you had to choose, would you identify yourself more closely with the traditional Republican Party, or would you identify yourself more closely with the Tea Party Movement?
Traditional Republican party …………………………….. 43%
Tea Party Movement ……………………………………….. 46% No opinion ……………………………………………………. 11%
And now I have a couple of questions for statistical purposes only…
T18. Are you a man or a woman?
Woman …………………………………………………………. 52% Man ……………………………………………………………… 48%
T19. What is your marital status?
Married …………………………………………………………. 69%
Single and have never been married ……………………. 4%
Unmarried and living with a partner ……………………. 5%
Widowed ………………………………………………………. 13%
Separated ………………………………………………………… 0%
Divorced …………………………………………………………. 7% No opinion ……………………………………………………… 2%
Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
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T20. Which of the following age groups applies to you?
18-34 ……………………………………………………………… 7%
35-44 ……………………………………………………………. 10%
45-54 ……………………………………………………………. 19%
55-64 ……………………………………………………………. 23% 65+ ………………………………………………………………. 41%
T21. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, Press 2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you belong to another ethnic group.
White ……………………………………………………………. 88%
Hispanic or Latino …………………………………………….. 6% Another ethnic group ………………………………………… 6%
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from an Arizona voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon past Republican primary election voting demographics. The interviews were conducted on June 3rd and 4th, 2014. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.90% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
