What news there was this week was not dramatic, apart from one possible exception and it will take time to figure out if it is of significance or not. That is oil prices.
It must be pointed out that oil prices are still very low by historic standards. Oil prices exceeded $105 a barrel as recently as mid-2014. The bottom was reached in early 2016 when oil was in the mid-$30’s. With the small production cap agreed to by OPEC, oil prices have jumped from $44 per barrel in mid-September to about $51 at present.
This type of increase probably won’t have much of an impact on consumers. Gas prices will increase somewhat, but, most of the “oil tax cut” given to consumers by the price decline will, for the most part, stay in place.
It is also unlikely that oil prices will increase very far unless more production is taken off line. At prices above $65 per barrel, new or closed capacity could well show up. In addition, production cuts by OPEC have a history of not working all that well.
Time will tell, but, at this point it does not look like this is the shock that will sink the recovery.
In other news, initial unemployment insurance weekly claims are now the lowest in 43 years. Consumer confidence, while down, appears to be in a range that is normal. Retail sales were up, but, modestly so. And manufacturing and trade inventories to sales remain steady. In Greater Phoenix, the apartment market remains strong.