Rose Law Group partner, Court Rich, provided live Twitter coverage from the 2013 Metro Phoenix Land and Housing Forecast on Wednesday, December 6. Here is a re-cap if you missed the event or the tweets:
At the 2013 Metro Phoenix Land and Housing Forecast. Huge group of developers = happy days in real estate. #realestate #Arizona #recovery
John Burns: housing cost to income ratio is lowest it has been in 30 years in Phx. #realestate #recovery
Burns: 16% price appreciation on housing year over year leads nation. Second place is San Fran 5% lower. #realestate #recovery
Burns: 77% land price appreciation in metro Phoenix since 2009 bottom. Leads nation. #realestate #recovery
Burns: projects 213% growth in new home starts to 33,000 per year by 2015 for metro Phx. #realestate #recovery
Burns: projects 30% new home price appreciation over next 4 years in metro Phoenix. #realestate #recovery #homebuilders
Greg Vogel: idea that 15% of homes are vacant is “fiction.” Real number is 7%. #realestate #recovery
Vogel: expects approximately 12,500 single family permits in metro Phoenix in 2013. #realestate
Vogel: 33,000 finished lots in metro Phoenix. #realestate
Vogel: 37,000 builder ready lots.
Vogel: 60% of subdivisions will be sold out in next 12 months. #realestate
Vogel: @CityofMaricopa has 2 years supply of finished lots. Then it is land. #realestate
Vogel: 46,286 acres purchased in 2012 in metro Phx. #realestate
This is all from the Metro Phoenix Land and Housing Forecast going on now. @catherinereagor
Vogel: we may be in “some form of full recovery” in 2015.
Now: panel discussion with Steve Hilton, Meritage; Mike Orr, ASU; Jim Rounds @edpco; and John Burns.
Hilton: labor is tight and supply issue. Expects 2013 to be great.
Orr (ASU): see 28% year over year appreciation. Calls rate of increase “ridiculous” at 2% per square foot per month. #realestate #recovery
Rounds (@edpco): it all comes back to job creation and population influx. AZ has “great fundamentals”. #recovery
Orr: ordinary resale homes selling at $119-120/sf around metro Phoenix. #realestate
Burns: private equity groups that have cleaned up foreclosure market have done a great service for AZ.
Hilton (Meritage): competing against resales not as big a problem now bc resales are fewer and older now that newer builds have transacted.
Hilton: 30% of Meritage buyers went through foreclosure or short sale.
Hilton on notion that people want smaller homes and less want to own: “nothing could be further from the truth.” #realestate #homebuilding
Hilton: homes today averaging 500sf bigger than pre-bust. #homebuilding #recovery
Hilton on the Valley housing market: “#Gilbert is gold”
Hilton: predicts that homebuilders are going to have to do development work again soon. Burns: agrees builders will develop their own.
Hilton: Meritage Homes are 50% more energy efficient than resales. Pushing legislation to allow more borrowing as result of utility savings.
Panel agrees between 16,000-18,000 building permits are to be expected in 2013. Demand is there for more but might not be able to build all.
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